Population Geography

Geography
What was population in 8000 BC? 1750?1950?1990? 2011When will we reach 7 Billion peopleWhat # will we be at by 2050?
8000BC- 8 million(Ag. Revolution)
1750-800 Million (Industrial Rev.)
1950-2.5 billion(tripled from 1750)
1990-5.3 billion(Doubled from 1850)
2011-6.987
Halloween (oct 31. 2011)
By 2050 we might reach 9 billion people
Problems of pop growth & Positive aspects
-food/housing/energy shortage
-environmental degradation
-inflation/low income/under or unemployment
-illiteracy
-loss of individual freedom

Pros: Power, economy, technology

What is the demographic equation? and other factors
Fertility – mortality + immigration – emmigration.
Also:
-age/sex structure
-cultural/socioeconomic aspects of society
Consequences of population change
-Change in number due to migration: (Ex. mexican workers “pushed out” due to economy, change in immigration laws, internal migration)
-Change in characteristics of Population (Ex. increased women in labor force)
-Change in composition (Ex. aging population as birth rates decrease.)
What is population census and why was it created?
Official count of ones entire population; Form of demographic data(empirical base) that began in ancient civilizations for taxation, warfare, etc. (People resources)
Who are counted-Define de facto, De Jure & Usual Residence
De facto- If counted on day census was taken, physically there in person.
De Jure- Counted if you belong there, where your home or citizenship is.
– Example: For example, a professor who lives in Kenosha, Wisconsin may actually teach at a university in Chicago. On the day of a de facto census, she would be assigned to Chicago. If a de jure census were used, she would be assigned to Kenosha.
-USUAL RESIDENCE: Common practice in USA; Usual residence has been defined as the place where the person lives and sleeps most of the time. This place is not necessarily the same as the person’s voting residence or legal residence. Also, noncitizens who are living in the United States are included, regardless of their immigration status. Difficult to apply to people without housing, commuter workers, snowbirds, college students, live-in nannies, military personnel, and migrant workers.
When are censuses taken? Why can they be sensitive and controversial and what are the changes that occur over time?
-Taken every 10 years since 1970
-2 forms: short and long
-Sensitive because states w/ lots of immigrants have hard time reflecting actual population, if estimates are smaller than actual then they are losing out on resources.
-Controversy over counts: basis for allocation of power and resources.
What are vital statistics?
vital events: Birth, death, marriage, divorce, abortion
-population registers
-combined with census to form Crude Birth rate.
what is CRUDE BIRTH RATE(CBR)?
-CBR= (# of births in year/mid-year popuation) x 1000
-used to estimate population, to see #’s of one year or a future year.
-To calculate rate of “population at risk” make denominator more specific.
What are sample surveys?
-Ask a random sample of population to answer extend questions during census, use probability to infer from sample the characteristics of entire population.
Types of historical sources of population
-Documentation!
-Ex. Graveyards: lot of historical info, can determine life expectancy of a certain time or life expectancy of male/females.
Why do populations grow- During Ag revolution
– During Industrial revolution
-Human grow exponentially not arithmetically(Malthusian theory)
-Ag revolution: Sedentary life, inproved supply of food; OR BR increased (better diet), DR increased (High-density living) but BR increased faster.

-Industrial Revolution: DR declined sooner and more rapidly than BR.

What is exponential growth?
-Malthusian theory
-Rule of 70 (if growth is 1%, it will take 70 years to double; based off natural log of 2)
-Occurs when growth rate of a mathematical function is proportional to the functions current value. Time is defined as a continuous dimension.In the case of a discrete definition of time with equal intervals it is called geometric growth.
Formula for Geometric growth
Pt=Po (1 + r)^t
-Pt= population at time t
-Po= initial population
r=growth rate
T= Time
Ex. An initial population of 2 million with a growth rate of 3% per year, what will the population be in 10 yearsPt= 2 million (1 + .03)^10
=2 million (1.3439)
=2.68 million
Formula for Exponential growth
P(t) = P0ert
P0 = Initial Population
r = growth rate(sometimes also called Malthusian Parameter)
t = time

Ex. An initial population of 2 million with a growth rate of 3% per year, what will the population be in 10 years
t=10
Pt=2 million e^.03(10)
=2 million (1.3498)
=2.7 million(similar to answer of geometric equation)

What is doubling time? How is it calculated?
-Time for population to double.
-Use exponential growth but add (2P)for Pt… 2PO=Poe^rt
EX. 2Po=Poe^rt
2=e^rt
ln 2=rt
t=ln 2/r
t=.69/r
***(MOST IMPORTANT) THEREFORE using .69/r if R=2% what is the doubling time-0.69/0.02=69/2=34.5 years***
When did population growth Peak? What is growth at now? Where is it happening most/least? Before the great depression?
-Peaked in 1960s @ 2%
-Currently @ 1.2% (83.8 million/year)
-Developing countries growing most, advanced industrials growing least.
-Before GD: Europe & American rapidly growing, now amongst slowest.
High mortality and ferility growth rate.
High DR and HIGH BR
-Around 20 per 1000 deaths(no country w/ over 20; DR around 15 almost all in Africa) & 35 per 1000 births
-Causes: Famine, war, disease, low likelihood of surviving to adulthood.
-Ex. Zambia & Nigeria
Low/ declining mortality and high fertility
-Most countries
-results in rapid population growth
-similarities:
1.)high TFR(total fertility rate: avg # of children per women)
2.) Young age structure (world- 27% under 15)
-EX. Ethiopia & Gambia
Low mortality and low fertility
-low rate of pop. growth
-Germany, Japan, Central/Eastern Europe (RUSSIA), China
High mortality and low fertility
NO CASES would result in extinction.
How much of the population is within the 10 largest countries? 5 largest countries?
-top ten: 59% of population
-top five: 48% of population
What are the changes in distributions of populations internationally (and regionally)?
-rapidly growing to less rapidly growing
-Rural to urban areas
-Originally from more developed areas to less developed areas (Europeans; ceased in 1930’s)
-Since WWII trend reversed- Les developed to more developed areas.
How is population density calculated? Where does most of population live?
-Total population/ total area; or sometimes total population/arable land
-Large majority of inhabitants live on small parts of land.
-over 90% of population lives north of equator-70% live within 600 miles of sea
-Population density declines w/ increasing altitudes.
What are the reasons for population clusters?
-History of agriculture & urbanization
-coastlines
-migrations
-4 Major clusters: South Asia, East Asia, W. Europe, East-Central N. America
Factors of population distribution
History- duration
Natural environment
Socioeconomic development, technology
Population of US? What region is the population shifting to? What are the largest states? Where are most populations located?
-308.7 million
– Snowbelt to sunbelt shift: Decrease in Northeast, increase in south west.
-CA, TX(surpassed NY in 2000), NY, FL, Illinois
-80% in metropolis areas
Reasons for US changes in Population growth
-Jobs
-retirement
-International migration- “gateway” metropolis cities for migrants: SF, LA, Chicago, Jersey, Houston.
Racial/ethnic diversity in US census questions?
-recently included 2 or more races (2.9% of population)
-Hispanics and Asian immigrants are diverse. “Pan-hispanc & Asian Identity”
What were early population theories?
-PRONATALIST idea: Pop growth is good!
-Wealth and material progres dependent on manual labor
-Replace people lost through high mortality.
What is the Malthusian Perspective?
-Main Idea
-Assumptions
-Check
-Criticisms
-Neo-Malthusians
-An essay on the Principle of Population(1798)
-Still no worries in that time of overpopulation, thought more was better.
-Malthus viewed population as always pressing to the limit of subsistence.
ASSUMPTIONS: Pop. increase at geometric rate(compounds) BUT food increases at arithmetic rate(based on available land)
Preventive Checks:
-Moral=postpone marriage/sex to shorten child-bearing age
-Vice= contraception, abortion, infanticide.

Positive Checks:
-Misery= Famine, war, starvation, natural disasters.

Consequences of Population growth: POVERTY, he opposed welfare to poor, felt it would solve poverty.

CRITICISM:
-land not only limiting variable on food supplies
-food not only limiting necessity
-Moral restrain not only acceptable means of birth control
-Poverty not an inevitable result of pop. rowth; could be due to social structure, distribution of wealth, policy (Marxist views)

Neo-Malthusians:
-criticize views on moral restraint but accept other conclusions.
-favor contraceptives rather than morals
-ENVIRONMENTAL COLLAPSE ADDED TO CHECK LIST.
-Dropped from favor in 19th century, returned after WWII

What is the Marxist perspective-3 main principles
-What are the problems w/ capitalism (3 things)
-criticism
-Malthusian explains population and resources WHEREAS Marx uses Social Structure.
-3 main ideas are:
1.) skeptical of natural laws
2.) products of a particular social and economic environment
3.) capitalism= overpopulation & poverty WHEREAS Socialism= pop. growth is absorbed.

Poverty is a consequence of capitalism because:
-exploitatin of labor by captialists, called “SURPLUS LABOR”.
-Labor is used to earn profits to buy machines to replace labor= unemployment/poverty.
-Desire for ‘industrial reserve army’- by keeping wages low through competition.

Criticisms:
-capitalism= root of all evils
-Political theory rather than population; doesn’t determine how fast/slow pop. grows, and whether a certain growth rat is a problem or not, NOR does it relate to economic resources.

Demographic Transition Theory
KEY POINT- Decline in fertility lagged behind decline in DR.
-A necessary, casual link between economic development and mortality decline followed LATER by fertility reduction.
-population size low in beginning, growth most rapid during second phase, remains at high level at last phase but not growing as fast.
-IN HISTORY:
Pre-18th century: High BR & DR
Mid-18th: DR decline(Ag. inprovements) but fertility remains high
Industrial Revolution: Children contribute less to family welfare, NOW SEEN AS IN COMPETITION OF resources (Goods & Services) resulting in DECLINING BR.
-Timing of transition varies region to region.
-unforseen by Malthus
Applicability of Demographic Transition theory to developing countries
-population growth (Africa-2.4%)
-Mortality decline: Originally the theory was applied to economic development but w/ advancement of medical technology spreading, you don’t need economy, can happen at faster rate.
-Migration: When countries in Europe were under economic pressures they had HUGE n. america to migrate to, today the areas of immigration are much more limited.
Conditions for fertilitiy decline(BESIDES ECONOMICS) & marx/malthusian & demographic change emphasese.
-Modernizatin/secularization: sense of autonomy from traditional way of life/thinking/ideology that determines womens roles, size of family, etc.
-Cultural Factors
Malthusian: fertility decline due to delay in marriage.
Marx- Change in social structure brings fertility decline.
-demogrpahic change and response: Kingsley Davis(1963)- Fertility response to mortality decline
What is the Demographic equation?
Pt+1=Pt+Bt,t+1-Dt,t+1+IMt,t+1-OMt,t+1
Pt+1= Population at time t+1 is equal to the population at time t plus births between time t and t+1(net increase) plus deaths between T & t+1 plus immigration and emmigration between the time frame(net migration)
What is fertility definition? Age bracket? Total #?
# of live births a woman has had
-The potential for reproduction; the biological ability to bear children.
-age bracket (15-44, peak in 20’s)
-Max # of children in life=16
How do you measure period fertility?
-(# of children age 0-4/# of women aged 15-49)x1000
-Used when very little data is available, best you can do to estimate birth rate in society.
-Drawbacks: reporting errors, not taking into account infant or women mortality.
How do you measure Crude Birth rate?
(# of live births in a year/ avg total(mid year) population in that year) x 1000
-“Crude”- includes all ages & sexes; affected by age structure
-popular: easy to understand; doesnt require lots of data.
How do you measure general fertility rate?
(# of live births in a year/midyear population of women aged 15-44 in that year) x1000
-relates birth to women possible of having births
-can be broken down to Age specific fertility rate.
How do you measure age specific fertility rate? (ASFR)
– Total live births in a year to women aged x to (X+5)/ total mid year population of women aged x to (x+5) x 1000
-controls for age and sex structures but requires more data!
-Ex. Age(15-19); # of women: 304,100; # of births to women: 15,500; SO the age specific fertility rate= 15,500/304,100*1000=50.97
-Shows amount of live births within that age group in that year.
How do you measure total fertility rate?
MOST WIDELY USED!
Just take ASFR and multiply it by 5 then divide by 1000! Give you # of children a woman will have had once she’s through her child bearing age.

1.) projects how many children a woman will have if a) she is all through her child-bearing age(survives through her reproductive years) and b) she experiences the current fertility rate at different ages.
-Assumes she will experience the predicted ASFR as she ages.
-FORMULA: ASFRx5/1000
-EX. ASFR= 328.72, SO TFR=328.72*5/1000=1.64 avg children per woman when shes finished her child bearing age.

-ASFRP is per 5 years so multiply by 5 and it contains all the child-bearing years; it’s also based per 1000 women so divide by 1000 to get to 1 person.

CBR vs. TFR
total fertility rate, which is the average number of children born to each woman over the course of her life. In general, the total fertility rate is a better indicator of (current) fertility rates because, unlike the crude birth rate, it is not affected by the age distribution of the population.
How to determine Gross reproductive rate(GPR)? Net reproductive?
(Female births/all births)
-# of female children a woman will have in life, assuming she survives and experiences AFSR
-NET reproductive: same as GPR but takes into account risk of woman ying before end of reproductive years; If NRR=1-REPLACEMENT FERTILITY each generation of female has potential to JUST REPLACE SELF. If less than 1 then declining population, over 1 equals pop. growth.
Major determinant factors of fertility: 7 factors
-Biological: Age/health
-Social/Cultural: Marriage(seen as beginning of childbirth); age of marriage and gender roles, role of contraceptives.
-Contraceptives: knowledge(methods, effectiveness and affordability); attitude;practices;availability
-Abortion
-Desire for children and sons: 99% of human history had high mortality, need to have children to replenish society!; desire for sons to pass on last name
-Ambivalence & inertia: Norms persisting for many centuries are hard to change even when society is changing (retirement pensions, etc.)
-Economic factors: less economy more fertility; Rural society over urban in fertility.
-COST & benefits: productive agents & source of financial security(for when you get old); COSTS- food, housing, etc & loss of opportunity/lower standard of living.
TFR in US
-1946-64= post-war baby boom, peaked in 57′ then dropped in 70’s(Baby bust), small “boomlet” where boomers had children.
-Resulted from Economic boom in 50s and downturn in 70’s.
-CURRENTLY: Women between age 25-29 have more babies than 20-25

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